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Abstract： This paper sets up a simplified dynamic discrete selection model to analyze two-stage decision of corporate export behior and influence of exchange rate under the framework of profit maximization. Then we adopt Heckman selection model to estimate general effects and structural effects of RMB appreciation on export based on the sample data of China Industrial Enterprises from 2005 to 2009. Findings reveal that RMB appreciation has exerted a significant negative impact to corporate export through extensive margins and intensive margins. Meanwhile， due to different corporate strategies of heterogeneous enterprises， RMB appreciation cannot achieve the expected effect of “survival of the fittest” and is instead unforable to the optimization of export structure. RMB appreciation drives industry structure of export to evolve towards advanced levels to a certain extent. However， such a positive effect mainly derives from the contribution of foreign-funded enterprises while restricting development space of indigenous firms in the sector of advanced manufacturing.
Keywords： RMB appreciation， export behior， extensive margins， intensive margins， Heckman selection model
JEL Classifications： F23， F31， F36
The first category of studies is based on export data at the level of commodities. According to the empirical studies by Wei and Liu （2010）， Renminbi appreciation has caused major increases in the export prices of labor-intensive products， greatly affecting export scale. On the other hand， the export prices of capital-intensive products are relatively stable and forable to maintaining their market share. As a result， Renminbi appreciation has contributed to the improvement of China’s export structure. However， Chen et al. （2007） reached an entirely opposite conclusion， i.e. when Renminbi appreciates， labor-intensive enterprises will reduce export prices denominated in their home currency to maintain competitiveness in foreign currencies； on the contrary， high-tech firms will significantly increase export prices denominated in their home currency to ensure the achievement of profitability targets， making Renminbi appreciation unable to contribute to the improvement of China’s export structure. As discovered by most studies on the estimation of exchange rate elasticity， export of labor-intensive products suffers more from Renminbi appreciation than does capital-intensive products， which is forable to the upgrade of China’s export structure （Zeng， Zhang， 2007； Ma et al.， 2010）. However， other studies suggest that Renminbi appreciation has not much impact on China’s export structure （Li， 2011）.Another category of studies are based on export data at the corporate level. Using the customs declaration data of import and export firms between 2000 and 2006 as samples， Li et al. （2011） discovered that Renminbi
In general， no consensus has been reached regarding the impact of Renminbi appreciation on China’s trade. An important reason is that studies at commodity level tend to neglect the tranission effects of corporate behiors and corporate heterogeneity. Although a few studies he evaluated the effect of Renminbi appreciation on trade from corporate perspective， these studies still he insufficiencies regarding the selection of sample data， treatment of exchange rate variable and configuration of econometric model. For instance， Li et al. （2011） and Tang and Zhang （2011） used samples dated between 2000 and 2006， during which period the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi had been in a depreciation channel. It is questionable to use sample data of depreciation period for evaluating the trade impact of Renminbi appreciation. The unified Renminbi exchange rate index of Huang （2011） actually assumes that the export markets are completely identical for all enterprises but such an assumption is obviously untenable.
This paper has the following contributions： first， it selects the corporate data between 2005 and 2009 as research sample. This period coincides with the continuous rise of Renminbi exchange rate， which is appropriate to the study of its trade impact； second， a relatively science-based exchange rate variable has been designed. According to the information ailability of sample data， the real effective exchange rate index of Renminbi has been established at the industry level to reflect the real exchange rate repercussions confronting businesses； third， Heckman selection model （hereinafter referred to as “H”） is employed to accurately measure the marginal effect of exchange rate on export； and fourth， the impact of Renminbi appreciation on extensive margins and intensive margins is studied from the perspective of trade restructuring1. By measuring the differentiated impact of Renminbi appreciation on the export decisions of heterogeneous enterprises， this paper attempts to verify whether Renminbi appreciation can he the effect of “survival of the fittest” and examine such restructuring implications.
Keywords： RMB appreciation， export behior， extensive margins， intensive margins， Heckman selection model
JEL Classifications： F23， F31， F36
1. Literature Review
Since the reform of China’s exchange rate system in 2005， the impact on Renminbi appreciation has always been under heated discussions of academic research. Existing studies on this topic can be divided into the following two categories based on different objects under study：The first category of studies is based on export data at the level of commodities. According to the empirical studies by Wei and Liu （2010）， Renminbi appreciation has caused major increases in the export prices of labor-intensive products， greatly affecting export scale. On the other hand， the export prices of capital-intensive products are relatively stable and forable to maintaining their market share. As a result， Renminbi appreciation has contributed to the improvement of China’s export structure. However， Chen et al. （2007） reached an entirely opposite conclusion， i.e. when Renminbi appreciates， labor-intensive enterprises will reduce export prices denominated in their home currency to maintain competitiveness in foreign currencies； on the contrary， high-tech firms will significantly increase export prices denominated in their home currency to ensure the achievement of profitability targets， making Renminbi appreciation unable to contribute to the improvement of China’s export structure. As discovered by most studies on the estimation of exchange rate elasticity， export of labor-intensive products suffers more from Renminbi appreciation than does capital-intensive products， which is forable to the upgrade of China’s export structure （Zeng， Zhang， 2007； Ma et al.， 2010）. However， other studies suggest that Renminbi appreciation has not much impact on China’s export structure （Li， 2011）.Another category of studies are based on export data at the corporate level. Using the customs declaration data of import and export firms between 2000 and 2006 as samples， Li et al. （2011） discovered that Renminbi
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appreciation has great repercussions on the corporate export of high-tech firms and capital-intensive firms with relatively aller impacts on the export of low-tech firms and labor-intensive firms， thus making Renminbi appreciation unforable to the upgrade of China’s trade structure. Based on the same sample data， Tang and Zhang （2011） discovered that Renminbi appreciation has reduced （increased） the probability for Chinese enterprises to enter （exit） overseas market and that there is no significant difference in the degree of exchange rate tranission for various commodity prices， thus making it unlikely for Renminbi appreciation to affect export structure through price leverage. Using the data of Chinese industrial enterprises between 2005 and 2007， Huang （2011） discovered that Renminbi appreciation by 1% will lead to a reduction in the export of high-productivity firms by 2.05%， yet a reduction in the export of low-productivity firms by 1.94%， so that Renminbi appreciation is unforable to the structural improvement of export trade.In general， no consensus has been reached regarding the impact of Renminbi appreciation on China’s trade. An important reason is that studies at commodity level tend to neglect the tranission effects of corporate behiors and corporate heterogeneity. Although a few studies he evaluated the effect of Renminbi appreciation on trade from corporate perspective， these studies still he insufficiencies regarding the selection of sample data， treatment of exchange rate variable and configuration of econometric model. For instance， Li et al. （2011） and Tang and Zhang （2011） used samples dated between 2000 and 2006， during which period the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi had been in a depreciation channel. It is questionable to use sample data of depreciation period for evaluating the trade impact of Renminbi appreciation. The unified Renminbi exchange rate index of Huang （2011） actually assumes that the export markets are completely identical for all enterprises but such an assumption is obviously untenable.
This paper has the following contributions： first， it selects the corporate data between 2005 and 2009 as research sample. This period coincides with the continuous rise of Renminbi exchange rate， which is appropriate to the study of its trade impact； second， a relatively science-based exchange rate variable has been designed. According to the information ailability of sample data， the real effective exchange rate index of Renminbi has been established at the industry level to reflect the real exchange rate repercussions confronting businesses； third， Heckman selection model （hereinafter referred to as “H”） is employed to accurately measure the marginal effect of exchange rate on export； and fourth， the impact of Renminbi appreciation on extensive margins and intensive margins is studied from the perspective of trade restructuring1. By measuring the differentiated impact of Renminbi appreciation on the export decisions of heterogeneous enterprises， this paper attempts to verify whether Renminbi appreciation can he the effect of “survival of the fittest” and examine such restructuring implications.