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Abstract. The model based on Marxi economics such as capital structure 、capital deposit and capital cycles measure directly natural rate of the unemployment. The natural rate of unemployment is decided by the capital per worker, capital structure and erage wage. According to the model the natural rate of the unemployment is empirical from 1991 to 2009.the result shows that the ascendant trend is very obvious. At last, according to the model, adjusting economic structure and regulating income distribution can reduce natural rate of unemployment.
Key words: Natural rate of unemployment, capital structure, capital per worker
The model of the natural rate of unemployment is based on Marxi economic theories. Accoding to this model, Chinese natural rate of unemployment from 1991 to 2009 is measured. The results of measurement show that specific natural rate of unemployment per year is different from that calculated by pure statistical model, but the results of two calculation methods he the same uplifted fluctuant trend.
1. Mechani and econometric model of Natural rate of unemployment
When labor market reaches balance in the quantity and structure, there is still surplus labor. Rate of unemployment calculated from this surplus labor is called natural rate of unemployment. It is objective existence in the process of economic development.
1.1 Mechani of natural rate of unemployment
With the development of economic and growing accumulation of capital, new technology seeps into real economy more quickly; as a result, it alters the constitution of aggregate social capital. The level of technology decides the ratio between the means of production and labor in the aggregate social capital. Value of the means of production is represented by C called constant capital and value of the labor force is represented by V called alterable capital. The ratio of constant capital and alterable capital is known as organic structure of capital.
With the development of the capital accumulation, constant capital and alterable capital increase according to a certain percent
Technological advance becomes normalization with the social economic development. As a result of technological advancement, the organic structure of capital gradually improves. The increment in aggregate social capital is allotted more to constant capital than to alterable capital, namely, the labor requirements coming from the incremental social capital lessen relative to organic structure of capital remaining unchanged .Labor quantity demanded will increase with deceleration, then increased employment is less than it organic structure of capital remains constant. If organic structure of capital improves, original capital will exclude labor. Then labor quantity demanded will absolutely decrease.
Let c/v be an erage composition of social capital over a period of time. Then the proportion of capital purchasing labor force to social capital is v/(v+c). Let K be the stock of social capital over a period of time. Then the corresponding capital purchasing labor force is Kv/(v+c). Let w be the erage social wage. Then the natural employment of labor force is Kv/(v+c)w. Let N be the total number of economic population. Then the natural rateof unemployment, denoted by U* is :
where k is the capital per head.
Viewed from (3), natural rate of unemployment varies inversely with capital per head and is directly proportional to erage wage. This conclusion chimes in with theory of efficiency wage. Natural rate of unemployment varies directly with erage composition of social capital. The natural rate of unemployment has nothing to do with inflation. This conclusion is in consonance with the opinion composed by Phelps(1967).At last, variation of natural rate of unemployment is the result of all variants.
2. Empirical analysis on natural rate of unemployment
The social capital stock computed by perpetual inventory approach at the time of t is :
Where Kt and Kt-1 are the capital stock equal to time t and time t-1; ?驻Kt is extra capital at the time of t; It and St are equal to extra fixed asset stock and extra storage at time t. Let K0 be capital stock in base period, then
2-1-1-2 Capital stock in base period
Social capital is the sum of private capital interrelating and interdependent, and the movement of the social capital is the total movement of private capital .The movement of private capital presents the three forms of function, namely monetary capital, production capital and commodity capital. The coexistence and subsequence of three functional capitals ensure continuous movement of the private capital. As such, there are three forms of functional capital in the process of social capital movement, and it appears the feature of coexistence and subsequence the movement process of social capital is:
Where W' is the commodity capital; G' is monetary capital; P is the production capital.
The total of social capital a certaintime is equal to the sum of commodity capital, production capital and monetary capital. Monetary capital W', namely, the value of the aggregate social product is approximately equal to GDP, so it can be expressed by GDP. The monetary capital(G') eliminating the value of consumption goods translate into the production capital, therefore the quantity of the production capital is approximately equal to the GDP minus the total amount of consumable retail denoting by W1.so K0=3*GDP-W1. The subject consumer of consumption goods contains the civil resident(R),government(G) and abroad consumer(NX),therefore the total expenditure in consumption of these subject denotes the total consumption goods, then K0=3*GDP-(R+G+NX) 2-1-1-3 capital per head
k= Kt / Nt, where Kt and Nt denotes social capital stock and the number of economic population respectively at time t.
2-1-2 composition of social capital
From the movement process of social capital, we know that: at the time of t, the relationship among variants is :
Where Ct, GDP, R, G, NX denote the value of production means, gross domestic product, residential consumption, expenditure of government, net export respectively.
The value of labor force(Vt) at time it can be behior of the gross salary(w),then composition of social capital is Ct / Vt=(GDP- R-G-NX)/w.
2-1-3 erage wage
Average wage of urban resident is on behalf of erage wage in model of natural rate of unemployment.
2.2 Calculation results of natural rate of unemployment andanalysis on it
2-2-1 Calculation results of natural rate of unemployment
Table 1 shows that the natural rate of unemployment from 1991 to 2009, and 1991 is base year. All variables such as capital per head, composition of capital and erage wage are computed by the data coming from china statistic yearbook of 2010.
2-2-3 Analysis on natural rate of unemployment
The nature rate of unemployment as whole ascends from 1991 to 1994, and the economy of the same time is in the state of consolidation, halt and digestion .From 1994 to 1997,the economy takes a turn for the better, and natural rate of unemployment descends continually and rapidly. From 1997 to 2009, the natural rate of unemployment rises again. The natural rate of unemployment is relatively steady after 2004, but until 2008, because of the effects of financial crises, the natural rate of unemployment rises to records. Labor-intensive enterprises in coastal areas, export-oriented enterprises in the crisis are worst –hit, and many o f them are bankrupt. As a result, natural rate of employment rises highly. The natural rate of unemployment as whole presents the trend of fluctuating escalation, which is consonance with the research conclusion of Caifang’s(2004)and Zheng xiang quan’s(2006).
Firstly, the fluctuant ascendance of the natural rate has to do with erage composition of social capital. Alteratio
At last, rising in capital per head restrains the improvement of natural rate of unemployment. Although rising in erage composition of social capital and erage wage promotes the natural rate of unemployment, the capital per head as pressing power controls the quickly rising in natural rate of unemployment.
For a long time, controlling the excessive population growth and reducing the speed of labor supply can also augment capital per head and decrease the natural rate of unemployment and the future pressure of employment.Net increase in population reach to 0.33 billion from 1978 to 2002,about 14.35 per year. There are 8 million labor forces per year entering the labor market. Provided that labor force increase to 10-20 millions per year in future ten years, there are 2-3millions deficit between supply and demand of labor force, even if the speed of economic growth remains 7% per year.
References
A. W. Phillips , The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom , 1861 —1857 , Economica , vol. 25 , 1958 , pp. 283 —299.
M. Friedman , The Role of Monetary Policy , American Economic Review , vol. 58 , no.1，1968 , pp. 1 —17.
[3] Edmunds .Phelps ,inflation policy and unemployment theory. Beijing university press,2010.
[4] Karl.Mars.Capital, Beijing: People’s Publishing House,1975
[5] Zeng xiangquan YuYong, Measuring and analyzing china’s natural rate of unemployment,social sciences in china, volume 4,2006
[6] Cai fang,Du Yang,Gao Wenshu, Employment Elasticity, NAIRU and Macroeconomic Policies, Economic Research, volume 9,2004.
[7] Wan hai yun, The measuring and Analyzing of NAIRU in china based on the data of 1978-2007,Contemporary Finance& Economics volum3 2009. [3][4][5]
Key words: Natural rate of unemployment, capital structure, capital per worker
The model of the natural rate of unemployment is based on Marxi economic theories. Accoding to this model, Chinese natural rate of unemployment from 1991 to 2009 is measured. The results of measurement show that specific natural rate of unemployment per year is different from that calculated by pure statistical model, but the results of two calculation methods he the same uplifted fluctuant trend.
1. Mechani and econometric model of Natural rate of unemployment
When labor market reaches balance in the quantity and structure, there is still surplus labor. Rate of unemployment calculated from this surplus labor is called natural rate of unemployment. It is objective existence in the process of economic development.
1.1 Mechani of natural rate of unemployment
With the development of economic and growing accumulation of capital, new technology seeps into real economy more quickly; as a result, it alters the constitution of aggregate social capital. The level of technology decides the ratio between the means of production and labor in the aggregate social capital. Value of the means of production is represented by C called constant capital and value of the labor force is represented by V called alterable capital. The ratio of constant capital and alterable capital is known as organic structure of capital.
With the development of the capital accumulation, constant capital and alterable capital increase according to a certain percent
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age.Technological advance becomes normalization with the social economic development. As a result of technological advancement, the organic structure of capital gradually improves. The increment in aggregate social capital is allotted more to constant capital than to alterable capital, namely, the labor requirements coming from the incremental social capital lessen relative to organic structure of capital remaining unchanged .Labor quantity demanded will increase with deceleration, then increased employment is less than it organic structure of capital remains constant. If organic structure of capital improves, original capital will exclude labor. Then labor quantity demanded will absolutely decrease.
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1-2-2 Relationship between social capital stock and employmentLet c/v be an erage composition of social capital over a period of time. Then the proportion of capital purchasing labor force to social capital is v/(v+c). Let K be the stock of social capital over a period of time. Then the corresponding capital purchasing labor force is Kv/(v+c). Let w be the erage social wage. Then the natural employment of labor force is Kv/(v+c)w. Let N be the total number of economic population. Then the natural rateof unemployment, denoted by U* is :
where k is the capital per head.
Viewed from (3), natural rate of unemployment varies inversely with capital per head and is directly proportional to erage wage. This conclusion chimes in with theory of efficiency wage. Natural rate of unemployment varies directly with erage composition of social capital. The natural rate of unemployment has nothing to do with inflation. This conclusion is in consonance with the opinion composed by Phelps(1967).At last, variation of natural rate of unemployment is the result of all variants.
2. Empirical analysis on natural rate of unemployment
2.1 Capital per head
2-1-1-1 Social capit摘自：毕业论文答辩www.udooo.com
al stockThe social capital stock computed by perpetual inventory approach at the time of t is :
Where Kt and Kt-1 are the capital stock equal to time t and time t-1; ?驻Kt is extra capital at the time of t; It and St are equal to extra fixed asset stock and extra storage at time t. Let K0 be capital stock in base period, then
2-1-1-2 Capital stock in base period
Social capital is the sum of private capital interrelating and interdependent, and the movement of the social capital is the total movement of private capital .The movement of private capital presents the three forms of function, namely monetary capital, production capital and commodity capital. The coexistence and subsequence of three functional capitals ensure continuous movement of the private capital. As such, there are three forms of functional capital in the process of social capital movement, and it appears the feature of coexistence and subsequence the movement process of social capital is:
Where W' is the commodity capital; G' is monetary capital; P is the production capital.
The total of social capital a certaintime is equal to the sum of commodity capital, production capital and monetary capital. Monetary capital W', namely, the value of the aggregate social product is approximately equal to GDP, so it can be expressed by GDP. The monetary capital(G') eliminating the value of consumption goods translate into the production capital, therefore the quantity of the production capital is approximately equal to the GDP minus the total amount of consumable retail denoting by W1.so K0=3*GDP-W1. The subject consumer of consumption goods contains the civil resident(R),government(G) and abroad consumer(NX),therefore the total expenditure in consumption of these subject denotes the total consumption goods, then K0=3*GDP-(R+G+NX) 2-1-1-3 capital per head
k= Kt / Nt, where Kt and Nt denotes social capital stock and the number of economic population respectively at time t.
2-1-2 composition of social capital
From the movement process of social capital, we know that: at the time of t, the relationship among variants is :
Where Ct, GDP, R, G, NX denote the value of production means, gross domestic product, residential consumption, expenditure of government, net export respectively.
The value of labor force(Vt) at time it can be behior of the gross salary(w),then composition of social capital is Ct / Vt=(GDP- R-G-NX)/w.
2-1-3 erage wage
Average wage of urban resident is on behalf of erage wage in model of natural rate of unemployment.
2.2 Calculation results of natural rate of unemployment andanalysis on it
2-2-1 Calculation results of natural rate of unemployment
Table 1 shows that the natural rate of unemployment from 1991 to 2009, and 1991 is base year. All variables such as capital per head, composition of capital and erage wage are computed by the data coming from china statistic yearbook of 2010.
2-2-3 Analysis on natural rate of unemployment
The nature rate of unemployment as whole ascends from 1991 to 1994, and the economy of the same time is in the state of consolidation, halt and digestion .From 1994 to 1997,the economy takes a turn for the better, and natural rate of unemployment descends continually and rapidly. From 1997 to 2009, the natural rate of unemployment rises again. The natural rate of unemployment is relatively steady after 2004, but until 2008, because of the effects of financial crises, the natural rate of unemployment rises to records. Labor-intensive enterprises in coastal areas, export-oriented enterprises in the crisis are worst –hit, and many o f them are bankrupt. As a result, natural rate of employment rises highly. The natural rate of unemployment as whole presents the trend of fluctuating escalation, which is consonance with the research conclusion of Caifang’s(2004)and Zheng xiang quan’s(2006).
Firstly, the fluctuant ascendance of the natural rate has to do with erage composition of social capital. Alteratio
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n in erage composition of social capital is the result of the industrial structure adjustment. Industrialization leads the share of the primary industry to decrease and the proportion of the secondary industry increase, whereas the capital structure of the secondary industry is larger than that of the primary industry. The feature of industrialization results in the rising of the erage compassion of social capital. Industrial structure adjustment directly result in ascend of natural rate of unemployment, meanwhile it raises new requirement in the structure and quality of labor force. If existing labor force can’t satiy the new demand, structural unemployment and frictional unemployment appear and actual unemployment grows in intensity. [3]Secondly, the fluctuant ascendance of the natural rate of unemployment has to do with improving in erage wage. Wage is the market price of the labor commodity. According to demand law, price rises and demand decreases. The rising in wage reduces the demand of labor force which improves the natural rate of unemployment. The table 1 shows an up trend of erage wage. The up trend of erage wage induces the rise in natural rate of unemployment. In real movement of economy, in order to encourage operators, many manufactures implement efficiency wage. Extra wage raise the cost of quit and make employee work hard, and then capital can get more amount of labor, therefore the amount of employment reduces more and increases the natural rate of unemployment.At last, rising in capital per head restrains the improvement of natural rate of unemployment. Although rising in erage composition of social capital and erage wage promotes the natural rate of unemployment, the capital per head as pressing power controls the quickly rising in natural rate of unemployment.
3. Policy and advice
3.1 economic structural adjustment
Natural rate of unemployment and erage composition of social capital are directly related. So capital composition must be decreased in order to reduce natural rate of unemployment. The capital composition has to do with the proportion of industry within national economic system. Viewed from the size of capital composition, capital composition of secondary industry is larger than that of primary industry, and capital composition of the tertiary industry is the allest. The reduction in erage composition of social capital depends on improving the proportion of tertiary industry and decreasing the proportion of the secondary and primary industry, especially, the weight of the secondary industry. At present, china has entered industrialized phase, and the secondary industry has the largest share in源于：毕业论文致谢信www.udooo.com
national economic system, the tertiary industry coming second, the primary industry being the allest. In order to reduce the natural rate of unemployment, economic structure must be further adjusted, for instance, increasing share of tertiary industry within national economic system can reduce natural rate of unemployment because of lower erage composition of social capital. Economic structure adjustment means labor sources reunite and influent among industries. Because different industries he different skill requirement, laid-off workers are not competent to new job what’s more, searching new job need necessary information, thus structural unemployment and frictional unemployment appear. In order to improve the labor ability needed by capital, government pays more attention to education and training. The advocacy of the life-long learning shall be accepted by entire society. At last, different forms ofeducation and training shall be adopted to satiy the demand of different unemployment, and the purpose is that improve the re-employment ability and quality of labor. [3][4]There are situations that people can’t search for new jobs, meanwhile some recruitment is not applied for because of asymmetric information and imperfect information caused by the influence of labor force Even if the both sides of supply and demand of labor force know each others, the mutual understanding and confidence among them are the important base of signing labor contract. To resolving this problem, the labor market must be established and improved. Labor market serves as the medium of intercourse between employer and employee, and it offers service such as vocational service, consultancy. At present, there are problems in labor market such as all scale, Insufficient, backward means of service, less information and so on. Therefore more employment service agency shall be established to provide free service, and intermediations of labor market shall be supported and developed. In addition, regional and national employment service system shall be quickly established, gradually enhancing the service functions and improving the service, in order to provide efficient service and help for both sides of labor force supplied and demanded.3.2 The fair distribution of income
Different groups he different marginalpropensity to consume (MPC).The low-income groups he higher MPC than the high-income groups. Augmenting the revenue of the low –income group not only decrease capital composition but also raise the effective consumption of the resident. They both decrease capital composition, consequently lowering the unemployment rate. Statistics shows that Gini coefficient of china in 2010 reaches to 0.5.The income distribution polarizes severely. Against this background, even if the gross wage does not increase, natural rate of unemployment can decrease by adjusting income distribution and raising the revenue of the low –income group.3.3 capital per head
The amount of capital motivated by labor is decided by the level of technology development. The more developed the technology is, the more amount of capital motivated by labor. so ,in order to reduce the natural rate of unemployment, science and technology must be robustly dev源于：怎么发表职称论文www.udooo.com
eloped.For a long time, controlling the excessive population growth and reducing the speed of labor supply can also augment capital per head and decrease the natural rate of unemployment and the future pressure of employment.Net increase in population reach to 0.33 billion from 1978 to 2002,about 14.35 per year. There are 8 million labor forces per year entering the labor market. Provided that labor force increase to 10-20 millions per year in future ten years, there are 2-3millions deficit between supply and demand of labor force, even if the speed of economic growth remains 7% per year.
References
A. W. Phillips , The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom , 1861 —1857 , Economica , vol. 25 , 1958 , pp. 283 —299.
M. Friedman , The Role of Monetary Policy , American Economic Review , vol. 58 , no.1，1968 , pp. 1 —17.
[3] Edmunds .Phelps ,inflation policy and unemployment theory. Beijing university press,2010.
[4] Karl.Mars.Capital, Beijing: People’s Publishing House,1975
[5] Zeng xiangquan YuYong, Measuring and analyzing china’s natural rate of unemployment,social sciences in china, volume 4,2006
[6] Cai fang,Du Yang,Gao Wenshu, Employment Elasticity, NAIRU and Macroeconomic Policies, Economic Research, volume 9,2004.
[7] Wan hai yun, The measuring and Analyzing of NAIRU in china based on the data of 1978-2007,Contemporary Finance& Economics volum3 2009. [3][4][5]