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In late February， the National Bureau of Statistics （NBS） published its annual statistical bulletin， showing that China’s gross domestic product （GDP） registered an increase of 7.8 percent in 2012， reaching 5
According to 2008 World Bank standards， countries should he a per-capita GDP above$11，906 to be part of a high-income group of countries， while $3，856 is the minimum level for middle-income countries. In 2011， the World Bank raised the standards to $12，475 and$4，036 respectively.
NBS figures showed that China became a middle-income country in 2010， when its percapita GDP reached roughly $4，300， triggering debate over whether the country is heading into the “middle-income trap.”
As labor and other costs continue to rise， some fear that China will slip into a dilemma between losing its competitive edge over lowercost countries elsewhere and falling behind advanced economies in higher-value products， and fall into the same trap as those middleincome economies experienced in the past.
If China wants to oid the trap， it needs to undertake a slew of reforms， such as investing in technology， promoting innovation in the private sector， speeding up urbanization and reducing income inequality so that ordinary people benefit more from economic growth， the Asian Development Bank （ADB） said in a report published last October.
“Tilting the balance of the economy from low-cost to high-value production， from relying on government to relying on markets， from investment to consumption， and from external to domestic demand will allow China to grow beyond its current middle-income status，” said Zhuang Juzhong， the report’s co-author and ADB deputy chief economist.
“Implementing this strategy would greatly increase the likelihood of sustained growth and reaching high-income status before 2030，” the ADB said in t
Advancing reforms
In the more than 30 years since the reform and opening-up policies were introduced， China has witnessed rapid development. According to ADB statistics， the Chinese economy achieved an erage annual growth rate of 9.9 percent from 1980 to 2011.However， behind that rapid development were low-cost labor and low-quality exports. For today’s China， the development model has reached its limits， according to Robert Wihtol， Director General for ADB’s East Asia Department.
He said that China is losing its advantage to compete with low-income countries due to sharp rising wages and other production costs on the one hand； on the other， it cannot compete with developed economies either because of its relatively low le
“China is not a cheap place any longer，”said Zhang Yansheng， Director of the Institute for International Economic Research under the National Development and Reform Commission（NDRC）. “The country is quickly losing its traditional advantages， while its new advantages he yet to take their place.”
Zhang warned that the country’s laborintensive， export-reliant and investment-driven economy is unsustainable， and China must upgrade its industrial structure and strengthen its innovation capabilities.
“Without changing the development model， China will find it difficult to sustain its growth and oid the middle-income trap，” Zhang said.
According to Zhang Chewei， Deputy Director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences， as labor costs rise and the aging population continues to grow， China’s demographic dividend， the window of opportunity for a country’s economic growth， will completely disappear by 2025.
“For the economy to take off， China must strive to complete its economic restructuring before that time， otherwise， it can only be stopped halfway， falling into the middle-income trap，” Zhang said.
“The case for reform is compelling because China has now reached a turning point in its de- velopment path. Managing the transition from a middle-income to a high-income country will prove challenging，” said former World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick.
Li Yining， a renowned Chinese economist and Dean Emeritus of the Guanghua School of Management of Peking University， said that China needs to promote economic reforms that cross into “uncharted waters.”
“With the tranormation of China’s growth pattern， the country’s efforts to boost consumer spending and reform income distribution will be further pushed forward， and these will act as the driving force for national economic development，” said Zheng Xinli， Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges， a government think tank.
A study by the Academy of Macroeconomic Researchof the NDRC shows that high-income countries should meet three conditions： Urban residents should be more than 70 percent of the population； the agricultural sector’s labor productivity should be close to those of industrial and services sectors； and rural residents’income should be close to or more than that of urban residents.
“Policies should be improved to include migrant rural workers in urban social security systems， and to provide them with employment opportunities，” Zhang Yongjun said. “So the promotion of agricultural modernization should be in line with the process of urbanization and industrialization.”
Addressing inequality
At a press conference during the full session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference（CPPCC） in March， Li of the Peking University said that if China wants to oid the middleincome trap， it has to reform its income distribution system.
Three decades of fast growth he exacerbated the gap between high- and low-income groups， and between cities and rural areas.“Growing income disparity and social disorder are the major causes of t
According to NBS statistics， China’s Gini coefficient， a widely used measure of economic inequality， reached 0.474 in 2012. An index reading between 0.3 and 0.4 means the richpoor gap is relatively reasonable， according to UN standards.
“The statistics highlight the need for China to speed up income distribution reforms to narrow the wealth gap，” said Ma Jiantang， commissioner of the NBS.
According to Ma， the erage income of urban residents in China is about three times that of rural people. While in urban areas， the erage income of high-income group is about four times that of the low-income group.
The erage per-capita disposable income of urban residents in 2012 was 24，565 yuan（$3，943）， while the erage per-capita net income of rural residents was 7，917 yuan （$1，271）， with the income ratio reaching 3 to 1， according to the NBS.
After dividing the urban residents into five groups according to their incomes， the erage income of the highest-earning group reached 51，456 yuan （$8，259）， almost five times that of the lowest-earning group with an erage income of 10，354 yuan （$1，662）.“China’s Gini coefficient is relatively high compared with the warning level of 0.4， reflecting the severity of the yawning wealth gap，” said Wang Jun， an economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.
“High inequality will hinder future growth， as low-income households contribute little to demand and are unable to invest in skill training and development，” said Zhuang. Beyond direct economic impacts， inequality has the potential to generate social instability， the ADB economist added.
To address the problem， China has vowed to double the country’s 2010 GDP and per-capita income for both urban and rural residents by 2020， according to the 18th CPC National Congress in November last year.
It is the first time that China has detailed its objective on per-capita income， an internationally accepted indicator for gauging people’s living standards， in the country’s blueprint for future development. Targets set at the 16th and 17th CPC national congresses back in 2002 and 2007 respectively merely called for more GDP growth.
But Ma said that only doubling the GDP and per-capita income is not enough. “China should make endeors to better distribute the cake of its economic growth while trying to make it bigger， and striveto make the incomes of low- and middle-income residents grow faster，” he said.
To this end， an improved tax system has been proposed as a solution. According to experts， a well-designed tax system assists in wealth redistribution by tra
Gan Li， Director of the Economics Department at the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu， Sichuan Province， said that the Gini coefficient is remarkably lower in developed economies with a mature tax system.
“In China， taxation has so far failed to shape a healthy income distribution， which it is supposed to do，” Gan said.
But it is not only about how taxes are collected， but how they are spent， said Wang Yukai， Vice Chairman of the China Society of Administrative Reform. According to him， education， medical services and social security account for 56-70 percent of government spending in Western countries， while in China， only 28.8 percent is spent on these areas.
Gao Shangquan， Honorary President of the China Society of Economic Reform， said that one third of China’s occupational disparity could be attributed to monopolies， so reform in the railway， petroleum， electricity and telecommunication sectors is urgently needed.
1.93 trillion yuan （$8.33 trillion）.
With the Chinese population expanding to 1.3 billion， NBS figures show that the country’s per-capita GDP reached $6，100 last year， leing China within the rank of middle-income countries by World Bank standards.According to 2008 World Bank standards， countries should he a per-capita GDP above$11，906 to be part of a high-income group of countries， while $3，856 is the minimum level for middle-income countries. In 2011， the World Bank raised the standards to $12，475 and$4，036 respectively.
NBS figures showed that China became a middle-income country in 2010， when its percapita GDP reached roughly $4，300， triggering debate over whether the country is heading into the “middle-income trap.”
As labor and other costs continue to rise， some fear that China will slip into a dilemma between losing its competitive edge over lowercost countries elsewhere and falling behind advanced economies in higher-value products， and fall into the same trap as those middleincome economies experienced in the past.
If China wants to oid the trap， it needs to undertake a slew of reforms， such as investing in technology， promoting innovation in the private sector， speeding up urbanization and reducing income inequality so that ordinary people benefit more from economic growth， the Asian Development Bank （ADB） said in a report published last October.
“Tilting the balance of the economy from low-cost to high-value production， from relying on government to relying on markets， from investment to consumption， and from external to domestic demand will allow China to grow beyond its current middle-income status，” said Zhuang Juzhong， the report’s co-author and ADB deputy chief economist.
“Implementing this strategy would greatly increase the likelihood of sustained growth and reaching high-income status before 2030，” the ADB said in t
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he report. “Scenario analysis shows China has the potential to grow 8 percent an- nually from 2010 to 2020 and 6 percent from 2020 to 2030， if it addresses its challenges effectively.”Advancing reforms
In the more than 30 years since the reform and opening-up policies were introduced， China has witnessed rapid development. According to ADB statistics， the Chinese economy achieved an erage annual growth rate of 9.9 percent from 1980 to 2011.However， behind that rapid development were low-cost labor and low-quality exports. For today’s China， the development model has reached its limits， according to Robert Wihtol， Director General for ADB’s East Asia Department.
He said that China is losing its advantage to compete with low-income countries due to sharp rising wages and other production costs on the one hand； on the other， it cannot compete with developed economies either because of its relatively low le
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vel of technology and innovation.“China is not a cheap place any longer，”said Zhang Yansheng， Director of the Institute for International Economic Research under the National Development and Reform Commission（NDRC）. “The country is quickly losing its traditional advantages， while its new advantages he yet to take their place.”
Zhang warned that the country’s laborintensive， export-reliant and investment-driven economy is unsustainable， and China must upgrade its industrial structure and strengthen its innovation capabilities.
“Without changing the development model， China will find it difficult to sustain its growth and oid the middle-income trap，” Zhang said.
According to Zhang Chewei， Deputy Director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences， as labor costs rise and the aging population continues to grow， China’s demographic dividend， the window of opportunity for a country’s economic growth， will completely disappear by 2025.
“For the economy to take off， China must strive to complete its economic restructuring before that time， otherwise， it can only be stopped halfway， falling into the middle-income trap，” Zhang said.
“The case for reform is compelling because China has now reached a turning point in its de- velopment path. Managing the transition from a middle-income to a high-income country will prove challenging，” said former World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick.
Li Yining， a renowned Chinese economist and Dean Emeritus of the Guanghua School of Management of Peking University， said that China needs to promote economic reforms that cross into “uncharted waters.”
“With the tranormation of China’s growth pattern， the country’s efforts to boost consumer spending and reform income distribution will be further pushed forward， and these will act as the driving force for national economic development，” said Zheng Xinli， Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges， a government think tank.
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Zhang Yongjun， a research fellow at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges， calls for greater efforts to help rural workers settle in cities.A study by the Academy of Macroeconomic Researchof the NDRC shows that high-income countries should meet three conditions： Urban residents should be more than 70 percent of the population； the agricultural sector’s labor productivity should be close to those of industrial and services sectors； and rural residents’income should be close to or more than that of urban residents.
“Policies should be improved to include migrant rural workers in urban social security systems， and to provide them with employment opportunities，” Zhang Yongjun said. “So the promotion of agricultural modernization should be in line with the process of urbanization and industrialization.”
Addressing inequality
At a press conference during the full session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference（CPPCC） in March， Li of the Peking University said that if China wants to oid the middleincome trap， it has to reform its income distribution system.
Three decades of fast growth he exacerbated the gap between high- and low-income groups， and between cities and rural areas.“Growing income disparity and social disorder are the major causes of t
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he middle-income trap，” the economist said.According to NBS statistics， China’s Gini coefficient， a widely used measure of economic inequality， reached 0.474 in 2012. An index reading between 0.3 and 0.4 means the richpoor gap is relatively reasonable， according to UN standards.
“The statistics highlight the need for China to speed up income distribution reforms to narrow the wealth gap，” said Ma Jiantang， commissioner of the NBS.
According to Ma， the erage income of urban residents in China is about three times that of rural people. While in urban areas， the erage income of high-income group is about four times that of the low-income group.
The erage per-capita disposable income of urban residents in 2012 was 24，565 yuan（$3，943）， while the erage per-capita net income of rural residents was 7，917 yuan （$1，271）， with the income ratio reaching 3 to 1， according to the NBS.
After dividing the urban residents into five groups according to their incomes， the erage income of the highest-earning group reached 51，456 yuan （$8，259）， almost five times that of the lowest-earning group with an erage income of 10，354 yuan （$1，662）.“China’s Gini coefficient is relatively high compared with the warning level of 0.4， reflecting the severity of the yawning wealth gap，” said Wang Jun， an economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.
“High inequality will hinder future growth， as low-income households contribute little to demand and are unable to invest in skill training and development，” said Zhuang. Beyond direct economic impacts， inequality has the potential to generate social instability， the ADB economist added.
To address the problem， China has vowed to double the country’s 2010 GDP and per-capita income for both urban and rural residents by 2020， according to the 18th CPC National Congress in November last year.
It is the first time that China has detailed its objective on per-capita income， an internationally accepted indicator for gauging people’s living standards， in the country’s blueprint for future development. Targets set at the 16th and 17th CPC national congresses back in 2002 and 2007 respectively merely called for more GDP growth.
But Ma said that only doubling the GDP and per-capita income is not enough. “China should make endeors to better distribute the cake of its economic growth while trying to make it bigger， and striveto make the incomes of low- and middle-income residents grow faster，” he said.
To this end， an improved tax system has been proposed as a solution. According to experts， a well-designed tax system assists in wealth redistribution by tra
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nerring resources from the rich to the needy.Gan Li， Director of the Economics Department at the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu， Sichuan Province， said that the Gini coefficient is remarkably lower in developed economies with a mature tax system.
“In China， taxation has so far failed to shape a healthy income distribution， which it is supposed to do，” Gan said.
But it is not only about how taxes are collected， but how they are spent， said Wang Yukai， Vice Chairman of the China Society of Administrative Reform. According to him， education， medical services and social security account for 56-70 percent of government spending in Western countries， while in China， only 28.8 percent is spent on these areas.
Gao Shangquan， Honorary President of the China Society of Economic Reform， said that one third of China’s occupational disparity could be attributed to monopolies， so reform in the railway， petroleum， electricity and telecommunication sectors is urgently needed.
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